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Bawler / China vs New Zealand / Recap
FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

China 0–3 New ZealandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026

China
0–3
New Zealand win
New Zealand
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had China at 44%, draw at 26%, New Zealand at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was China to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
China win
44%
Draw
26%
Zealand win
30%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.27
Total 2.85
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 78% forecast confidence, backed by China's 0.34 expected-goal edge and a combined xG pool of 2.86 that favors goal-heavy play."

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