FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

China 3–0 MaldivesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 24 September 2026

China
3–0
China win
Maldives
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had China at 62%, draw at 23%, Maldives at 15%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward China.

> Pre-match probability vs result
China win
62%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Maldives win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 0.87
Total 2.82
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 62%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"China's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.01 xG edge to make a home win the high-confidence call at 60% probability."

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