Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 02 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Chicago Fire FC vs Charlotte FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability, backed by Chicago's 0.61 expected-goal advantage and a combined 3.14 xG total that strongly favors an open, multi-goal contest.

📊 Win probability
48.8% home27.7% draw23.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Chicago Fire FCstepCharlotte FC
1.66Base xG · rolling 26-match1.35
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.88Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.27

Chicago Fire average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Charlotte average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Over 3.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Chicago Fire vs Charlotte — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Chicago Fire and Charlotte — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Chicago Fire 49% · draw 28% · Charlotte 24%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Chicago Fire FC 21 Charlotte FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.