What we expect
In plain English
Charlotte FC are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Charlotte FC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Charlotte FC vs FC Dallas?
Bawler's model rates this match: Charlotte FC are favoured (43% win probability vs 32% for FC Dallas, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Charlotte FC vs FC Dallas?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Charlotte FC 1-1 FC Dallas (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.10.
How does Bawler predict Charlotte FC vs FC Dallas?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Charlotte FC 43%, the draw 25% and FC Dallas 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs FC Dallas?
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.68 and away expected goals 1.41.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Charlotte FC vs FC Dallas?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.10. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).