Lincoln City beat Bristol City 1–0. Bristol City had 18 shots (4 on target) to Lincoln City's 9 (3), with 67% of the ball against 33%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 0.9, so Bristol City created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Lincoln City beat Bristol City 1–0. Bristol City had 18 shots (4 on target) to Lincoln City's 9 (3), with 67% of the ball against 33%. On expected goals it was 1.5 to 0.9, so Bristol City created the better chances and still lost the game.
Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln City, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bristol City 38%, the draw 27% and Lincoln City 34%.
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.9, Shots 18–9, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 12–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 13–4, Saves 2–4, Fouls 13–19, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–5.
No. It finished 0–1, so Bristol City failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.