Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBrighton & Hove Albion on top, with Charalampos Kostoulas our likeliest to test the keeper.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United prediction
Our model makes Brighton & Hove Albion favourites for this Premier League game, giving them a 56% chance of winning. Newcastle United are 21% and the draw is 23%. Our predicted score is Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Newcastle United, the likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win score (10%). Our expected goals are 2.0 for Brighton & Hove Albion and 1.1 for Newcastle United, 3.1 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 60%.
We expect Brighton & Hove Albion to have 17.6 shots (6.1 on target) and Newcastle United 10.2 (3.4 on target), and corners at 6.2 to 4.0. That points to Brighton & Hove Albion doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, Brighton & Hove Albion have won three, Newcastle United one, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Newcastle United 3–1 Brighton & Hove Albion, in May 2026.
On form, Brighton & Hove Albion have three wins, two draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Newcastle United have one win, one draw and four defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Brighton & Hove Albion or Draw, Brighton & Hove Albion Over 13.5 Shots and Charalampos Kostoulas 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 46% chance, which makes the fair price 6/5 (2.16).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Brighton & Hove Albion · last 6
Newcastle United · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw is 79% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brighton & Hove Albion are favoured (56% win probability vs 21% for Newcastle United, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Bawler's predicted score is Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Newcastle United: the most likely score if Brighton & Hove Albion win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Brighton & Hove Albion 56%, the draw 23% and Newcastle United 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Brighton & Hove Albion expecting 1.97 goals and Newcastle United 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United?
Brighton & Hove Albion or Draw (79%), Brighton & Hove Albion Over 13.5 Shots (77%), Charalampos Kostoulas 1+ Shot on Target (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.16). 18+, please gamble responsibly.