Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBrighton & Hove Albion on top, with Georginio Rutter our likeliest to test the keeper.
Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion prediction
Our model gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 66% chance of winning this Premier League game. A Hull City win is 13% and a draw 21%. Our predicted score is Hull City 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion (12%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Our expected goals are 0.8 for Hull City and 2.1 for Brighton & Hove Albion, 2.9 in all. Both teams scoring is only 49% and three or more goals is 56%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Hull City have won two, Brighton & Hove Albion one, and two were drawn. When they last met, it finished Hull City 0–0 Brighton & Hove Albion, in Feb 2016. On shots, our forecast is 10.4 for Hull City and 18.3 for Brighton & Hove Albion, with 3.6 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 3.7 to 5.7. So we expect Brighton & Hove Albion to do more of the shooting.
In their last six games Hull City have no wins, three draws and three defeats, while Brighton & Hove Albion have three wins, two draws and one defeat. Hull City lost their most recent match and Brighton & Hove Albion won theirs. Bawler's pick combines Brighton & Hove Albion or Draw, Brighton & Hove Albion Over 13.5 Shots and Georginio Rutter 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 46%, a fair price of 6/5 (2.18).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Hull City · last 6
Brighton & Hove Albion · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Brighton & Hove Albion to win is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brighton & Hove Albion are favoured (66% win probability vs 13% for Hull City, 21% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler's predicted score is Hull City 0-2 Brighton & Hove Albion: the most likely score if Brighton & Hove Albion win, which is the likeliest result (66%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.7%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Hull City 13%, the draw 21% and Brighton & Hove Albion 66%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Hull City expecting 0.83 goals and Brighton & Hove Albion 2.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Hull City vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion?
Brighton & Hove Albion or Draw (87%), Brighton & Hove Albion Over 13.5 Shots (81%), Georginio Rutter 1+ Shot on Target (57%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.18). 18+, please gamble responsibly.