Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBorussia Dortmund on top, and Serhou Guirassy getting plenty of shots away.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Our model gives Borussia Dortmund 48%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 28%, so Borussia Dortmund start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Borussia Dortmund 2–1 Bayer Leverkusen, the most likely Borussia Dortmund win (9%). Borussia Dortmund are expected to score 1.8 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.4, 3.2 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (63%) and three or more goals is 62%.
We expect Borussia Dortmund to have 16.5 shots (6.3 on target) and Bayer Leverkusen 12.1 (4.0 on target), and corners at 6.1 to 3.8. That points to Borussia Dortmund doing more of the attacking. Of the players, Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund) tops both our lists, with 3.3 shots and 1.4 on target expected if they start. Facundo Medina of Bayer Leverkusen is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
In their last six games Borussia Dortmund have five wins, one draw and no defeats, while Bayer Leverkusen have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Both won their most recent match. Of their last five meetings on our records, Borussia Dortmund have won two, Bayer Leverkusen three. The last meeting ended Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen, in Apr 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Borussia Dortmund or Draw, Borussia Dortmund Over 12.5 Shots and Serhou Guirassy 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 47% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.11.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Borussia Dortmund · last 6
Bayer Leverkusen · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Borussia Dortmund or draw is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Borussia Dortmund are favoured (48% win probability vs 28% for Bayer Leverkusen, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's predicted score is Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen: the most likely score if Borussia Dortmund win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Borussia Dortmund 48%, the draw 24% and Bayer Leverkusen 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Borussia Dortmund expecting 1.84 goals and Bayer Leverkusen 1.37.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund or Draw (72%), Borussia Dortmund Over 12.5 Shots (78%), Serhou Guirassy 2+ Shots (78%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.11). 18+, please gamble responsibly.