Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBorussia Dortmund on top, with Serhou Guirassy our likeliest to test the keeper.
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund prediction
Our model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 22%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 54%, so Borussia Dortmund start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 Borussia Dortmund, the most likely Borussia Dortmund win (10%). Our expected goals are 1.1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.9 for Borussia Dortmund, 3.0 in all. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 58%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won one, Borussia Dortmund three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Borussia Dortmund, in May 2026. Serhou Guirassy is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.0 shots and 1.3 on target for Borussia Dortmund, if they start. For cards, Jobe Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and Borussia Dortmund have five wins, one draw and no defeats. On shots, our forecast is 11.5 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 15.1 for Borussia Dortmund, with 4.0 and 4.8 on target, and corners at 3.6 to 4.3. So we expect Borussia Dortmund to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick for this game is Borussia Dortmund or Draw, Borussia Dortmund Over 10.5 Shots and Serhou Guirassy 1+ Shot on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 50% chance, which makes the fair price Evens (1.98).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Borussia Mönchengladbach · last 6
Borussia Dortmund · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Borussia Dortmund or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model rates this match: Borussia Dortmund are favoured (54% win probability vs 22% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's predicted score is Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund: the most likely score if Borussia Dortmund win, which is the likeliest result (54%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 22%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 54%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Borussia Mönchengladbach expecting 1.15 goals and Borussia Dortmund 1.87.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund or Draw (78%), Borussia Dortmund Over 10.5 Shots (82%), Serhou Guirassy 1+ Shot on Target (69%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.98). 18+, please gamble responsibly.