Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBayer Leverkusen on top, with Patrik Schick our likeliest to test the keeper.
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07 prediction
Our model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 70% chance of winning this Bundesliga game. A SC Paderborn 07 win is 11% and a draw 19%. Our predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07, at 12%. We expect 3.0 goals in total: 2.3 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.8 for SC Paderborn 07. Both teams scoring is only 49% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Bayer Leverkusen have won four, SC Paderborn 07 one. When they last met, it finished Paderborn 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen, in Oct 2025. Patrik Schick is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.7 shots and 1.3 on target for Bayer Leverkusen, if they start. For cards, Facundo Medina (Bayer Leverkusen) has been booked once every 2 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On form, Bayer Leverkusen have three wins, no draws and three defeats from their last six games, and SC Paderborn 07 have one win, three draws and two defeats. On shots, our forecast is 21.1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 9.5 for SC Paderborn 07, with 6.6 and 2.9 on target, and corners at 8.1 to 2.9. So we expect Bayer Leverkusen to do more of the shooting. Bawler's pick combines Bayer Leverkusen or Draw, Bayer Leverkusen Over 16.5 Shots and Patrik Schick 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 55%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.81).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Bayer Leverkusen · last 6
SC Paderborn 07 · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Bayer Leverkusen to win is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bayer Leverkusen are favoured (70% win probability vs 11% for SC Paderborn 07, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bawler's predicted score is Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 SC Paderborn 07: the most likely score if Bayer Leverkusen win, which is the likeliest result (70%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.0%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Bayer Leverkusen 70%, the draw 19% and SC Paderborn 07 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Bayer Leverkusen expecting 2.25 goals and SC Paderborn 07 0.79.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07 line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07?
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw (89%), Bayer Leverkusen Over 16.5 Shots (78%), Patrik Schick 1+ Shot on Target (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.81). 18+, please gamble responsibly.