Match prediction·EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification·Tuesday 11 Aug, 16:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Union St.-Gilloise

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.6% home27.9% draw17.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Bodo/GlimtstepUnion St.-Gilloise
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Bodo/Glimt average 4.7 corners per game at home this season (7 competitive matches). Union St.-Gilloise average 6.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Union St.-Gilloise or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Bodo/Glimt vs Union St.-Gilloise — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 4 August 2026, Bodo/Glimt have won 0, Union St.-Gilloise have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
4 August 2026Union St.-Gilloise 33 Bodo/GlimtEurope: Champions League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Bodo/Glimt 55% · draw 28% · Union St.-Gilloise 17%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.