FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Sint-Truidense 0–3 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sint-Truidense at 32%, draw at 26%, Union St.-Gilloise at 42%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Union St.-Gilloise.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sint-Truidense win
32%
Draw
26%
St.-Gilloise win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.54
Total 2.85
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost