FT · Europe: Champions League - Qualification · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
Union St.-Gilloise 3–3 Bodo/GlimtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 04 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Union St.-Gilloise at 26%, draw at 34%, Bodo/Glimt at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Bodo/Glimt to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
St.-Gilloise win
26%
Draw
34%
Actual ✓
Bodo/Glimt win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.03 – 1.32
Total 2.35
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 71% because both sides project efficient finishing with a combined 2.35 xG in a fixture where the win-probability gap (Bodo/Glimt 40% vs Union 26%) suggests attacking intensity from the visitor."