What we expect
In plain English
Besiktas are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Kocaelispor, and Kocaelispor have not beaten them in their last four meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Besiktas to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Bawler's model rates this match: Besiktas are favoured (64% win probability vs 14% for Kocaelispor, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Besiktas 1-0 Kocaelispor (13.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.62.
How does Bawler predict Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Besiktas 64%, the draw 23% and Kocaelispor 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
BTTS: No (56% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.87 and away expected goals 0.74.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.62. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).