FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Friday, 23 October 2026
Alanyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Alanyaspor or draw at 71%. Bawler had Alanyaspor at 40%, the draw at 31% and Kocaelispor at 29%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alanyaspor win
40%
Draw
31%
Kocaelispor win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.0
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Alanyaspor or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 18%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Alanyaspor's 1.21 expected goals edge and 40% win probability support the Alanyaspor or draw forecast, as the hosts project a narrow but consistent advantage in a tightly matched encounter."