FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 19 October 2026
Trabzonspor 2–0 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas or draw at 64%. Bawler had Trabzonspor at 36%, the draw at 25% and Besiktas at 39%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
36%
Result
Draw
25%
Besiktas win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% probability as both sides generate nearly identical expected goals (Trabzonspor 1.55, Besiktas 1.59), creating a balanced attacking script at home and away."