FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Amed SFK 3–2 BesiktasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Amed SFK at 45%, draw at 24%, Besiktas at 30%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Amed SFK.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SFK win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Besiktas win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.46
Total 3.27
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 81%, anchored by combined xG of 3.04 and a narrow 0.14-goal gap that keeps both sides competitive in attack."