Bawler / Belgium vs Iran / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Belgium 0–0 IranMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 21 June 2026

Belgium
0–0
Draw
Iran
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Belgium at 46%, draw at 30%, Iran at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Belgium to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Belgium win
46%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Iran win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.14
Total 2.79
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 62%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Belgium's 1.65 xG and Iran's 1.14 xG combined (2.79 total) creates a high-volume attacking script that Lukaku and Taremi are primed to exploit."

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