Match prediction·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 04:00 UTC

Austria vs Jordan

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 72% because Austria's 1.54 xG advantage and creator Marcel Sabitzer's playmaking edge should generate multiple chances against Jordan's porous 1.02 xG baseline.

📊 Win probability
46.0% home31.5% draw22.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
AustriastepJordan
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.54Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.02

Austria average 2.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
1
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Austria to win
47%
Jordan to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Austria vs Jordan — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Austria and Jordan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Austria 46% · draw 31% · Jordan 23%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Austria 31 Jordan
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.