Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal prediction — LaLiga · Sun 23 Aug · 16:00 UK

LaLiga · Sun 23 Aug · 16:00 UK
Atlético Madrid 48Draw 25Villarreal 27
The call
81%
Over 1.5 goals
3.1
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–2

How it finished

Atlético Madrid and Villarreal drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Atlético Madrid at 48% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Atlético Madrid had 19 shots (4 on target) to Villarreal's 13 (6), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 3.6.

Atlético…Full-time statsVillarreal
52%Possession48%
0.7Expected goals (xG)3.6
19Shots13
4Shots on target6
6Shots inside box10
0Big chances6
5Corners3
4Saves2
12Fouls13
3Offsides1
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultAtlético Madrid 48%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.14
Both teams to score60%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 81%Landed
Second call1X 73%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Atlético Madrid to score83%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Villarreal to score72%
Under 3.5 goals63%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5ATL 2 · D 2 · VIL 1
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

May 2026Villarreal 5–1 Atletico Madrid
Sept 2025Atletico Madrid 2–0 Villarreal
Jan 2025Atletico Madrid 1–1 Villarreal
Aug 2024Villarreal 2–2 Atletico Madrid
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Atlético Madrid and Villarreal drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Atlético Madrid at 48% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. Atlético Madrid had 19 shots (4 on target) to Villarreal's 13 (6), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 3.6.

What was the final score in Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Atlético Madrid 2–2 Villarreal, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlético Madrid 48%, the draw 25% and Villarreal 27%.

What were the stats in Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–3.6, Shots 19–13, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 6–10, Big chances 0–6, Corners 5–3, Saves 4–2, Fouls 12–13, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 3–2, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal?

Yes — both Atlético Madrid and Villarreal scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Villarreal right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Atlético Madrid 48%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 81%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said 1X 73%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Atlético Madrid form →Villarreal form →