FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Sevilla 1–3 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid or draw at 67%. Bawler had Sevilla at 33%, the draw at 26% and Atlético Madrid at 41%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sevilla win
33%
Draw
26%
Atlético Madrid win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sevilla's two-point cushion above the drop zone clashes with Atlético Madrid's Champions League defence, yet the xG gap of 0.17 and balanced 1.40–1.57 attacking profiles make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% call."