Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. Atalanta had 22 shots (11 on target) to Venezia's 19 (4), with 36% of the ball against 64%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 2.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. Atalanta had 22 shots (11 on target) to Venezia's 19 (4), with 36% of the ball against 64%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 2.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Atalanta 3–1 Venezia, played on 12 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atalanta 61%, the draw 22% and Venezia 18%.
Full-time: Possession 36%–64%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–2.6, Shots 22–19, Shots on target 11–4, Shots inside box 16–10, Big chances 6–5, Corners 8–7, Saves 3–7, Fouls 14–6, Offsides 0–5, Yellow cards 0–2, Red cards 1–0.
Yes — both Atalanta and Venezia scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.