Atalanta vs Venezia prediction — Serie A · Mon 12 Oct · 17:30 UK

Serie A · Mon 12 Oct · 17:30 UK
61Atalanta win22Draw18Venezia win
Full time
3–1

How it finished

Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. Atalanta had 22 shots (11 on target) to Venezia's 19 (4), with 36% of the ball against 64%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 2.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.

AtalantaFull-time statsVenezia
36%Possession64%
2.1Expected goals (xG)2.6
22Shots19
11Shots on target4
16Shots inside box10
6Big chances5
8Corners7
3Saves7
14Fouls6
0Offsides5
0Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Atalanta win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (10%)
Expected goals
2.1v1.1
3.2 in total
Both teams score
58%
Leans yes
3+ goals
62%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

AtalantaAtalantaVeneziaVenezia
2.1Goals1.1
24.9Shots16.4
5.2On target6.2
4.1Corners4.8
AtalantaAtalantaVeneziaVenezia
0.9Goals0.3
11.2Shots7.1
2.3On target2.7
1.9Corners2.3
AtalantaAtalantaVeneziaVenezia
1.2Goals0.8
13.7Shots9.2
2.9On target3.5
2.2Corners2.6

What we said the chances were

Atalanta to score88%
2 or more goals83%
Goal before half-time69%
Venezia to score66%

First half — what we expected

Atalanta
60%
to score before half-time
Venezia
24%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

AtalantaAtalantaVeneziaVenezia
62%10+ shots22%
43%12+ shots10%
63%2+ shots on target70%
22%4+ shots on target29%
80%1+ corners85%
31%3+ corners38%

League position

Venezia in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Mar 2025Atalanta 0–0 Venezia
Oct 2024Venezia 0–2 Atalanta
Apr 2022Venezia 1–3 Atalanta
Jan 2022Atalanta 2–0 Venezia
Nov 2021Atalanta 4–0 Venezia
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Atalanta form →Venezia form →

Common questions

Who won Atalanta vs Venezia?

Atalanta beat Venezia 3–1. Atalanta had 22 shots (11 on target) to Venezia's 19 (4), with 36% of the ball against 64%. On expected goals it was 2.1 to 2.6, so Venezia created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Atalanta 3–1 Venezia, played on 12 Oct 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atalanta 61%, the draw 22% and Venezia 18%.

What were the stats in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Full-time: Possession 36%–64%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–2.6, Shots 22–19, Shots on target 11–4, Shots inside box 16–10, Big chances 6–5, Corners 8–7, Saves 3–7, Fouls 14–6, Offsides 0–5, Yellow cards 0–2, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Atalanta vs Venezia?

Yes — both Atalanta and Venezia scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.