> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทSunday 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Algeria vs Austria
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because Austria's 1.48 xG and Algeria's creation through Mahrez (26% of team output) combine for a 2.57 total-xG thriller.
Win probability
25.1% home32.1% draw42.8% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
AlgeriastepAustria
1.09Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.48
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.48
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
8
11
8
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2
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12
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2
5
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2
2
1
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Under 10.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 7.5 SOT + Michael Gregoritsch 1+ Shot on Target
Model 42.0% ยท @ 2.38x
Take this pick โ> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Algeria 3โ3 Austria
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+