Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II prediction — Eredivisie · Tue 15 Sept · 19:00 UK

Eredivisie · Tue 15 Sept · 19:00 UK
74Ajax Amsterdam win16Draw10Willem II win
Full time
5–1

How it finished

Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.

Ajax…Full-time statsWillem II
70%Possession30%
3.8Expected goals (xG)1.6
33Shots10
12Shots on target4
26Shots inside box7
4Big chances3
14Corners2
3Saves7
6Fouls3
3Offsides4
We predicted
2–0
Ajax Amsterdam to win · 10% for this exact score
Expected goals
2.7v0.9
3.6 in total
Both teams score
56%
Leans yes
3+ goals
70%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamWillem IIWillem II
2.7Goals0.9
26.1Shots10.9
10.1On target2.3
9.3Corners3.9
Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamWillem IIWillem II
1.7Goals0.2
12.2Shots4.9
5.0On target1.1
4.4Corners1.8
Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamWillem IIWillem II
1.0Goals0.7
13.9Shots6.0
5.1On target1.2
4.9Corners2.1

What we said the chances were

Ajax Amsterdam to score93%
2 or more goals88%
Goal before half-time86%
Willem II to score61%

First half — what we expected

Ajax Amsterdam
82%
to score before half-time
Willem II
21%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Ajax AmsterdamAjax AmsterdamWillem IIWillem II
62%11+ shots<10%
44%13+ shots<10%
69%4+ shots on target<10%
38%6+ shots on target<10%
76%3+ corners29%
43%5+ corners<10%

League position

Willem II in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Apr 2025Willem II 1–2 Ajax
Oct 2024Ajax 1–0 Willem II
Feb 2022Willem II 0–1 Ajax
Dec 2021Ajax 5–0 Willem II
Jan 2021Ajax 3–1 Willem II
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →Ajax Amsterdam form →Willem II form →

Common questions

Who won Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.

What was the final score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem II, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 74%, the draw 16% and Willem II 10%.

What were the stats in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Full-time: Possession 70%–30%, Expected goals (xG) 3.8–1.6, Shots 33–10, Shots on target 12–4, Shots inside box 26–7, Big chances 4–3, Corners 14–2, Saves 3–7, Fouls 6–3, Offsides 3–4.

Did both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?

Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and Willem II scored, finishing 5–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.