Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.
Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem II, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 74%, the draw 16% and Willem II 10%.
Full-time: Possession 70%–30%, Expected goals (xG) 3.8–1.6, Shots 33–10, Shots on target 12–4, Shots inside box 26–7, Big chances 4–3, Corners 14–2, Saves 3–7, Fouls 6–3, Offsides 3–4.
Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and Willem II scored, finishing 5–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.