Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Cameron Archer and Amine Gouiri both getting shots away.
AJ Auxerre v Marseille prediction
Our model gives AJ Auxerre 31%, the draw 25% and Marseille 43%, so Marseille start as favourites. Our predicted score is AJ Auxerre 1–2 Marseille, the likeliest Marseille win score (9%). We expect 3.1 goals in total: 1.4 for AJ Auxerre and 1.7 for Marseille. Both sides are more likely than not to score (61%) and three or more goals is 59%.
In their last six games AJ Auxerre have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Marseille have five wins, no draws and one defeat. AJ Auxerre lost their most recent match and Marseille won theirs. Cameron Archer (AJ Auxerre) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.4 shots if they start. Amine Gouiri (Marseille) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. Christ Makosso of AJ Auxerre is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect AJ Auxerre to have 12.1 shots (4.5 on target) and Marseille 14.3 (4.9 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 4.9. Of their last five meetings on our records, AJ Auxerre have won two, Marseille three. The last meeting ended Marseille 1–0 Auxerre, in Mar 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Both Teams to Score, Over 21.5 Total Shots, Cameron Archer 1+ Shot and Amine Gouiri 1+ Shot. The chance all four land is 46% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/5, or 2.17.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
AJ Auxerre · last 6
Marseille · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Marseille or draw is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?
Bawler's model rates this match: Marseille are favoured (43% win probability vs 31% for AJ Auxerre, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?
Bawler's predicted score is AJ Auxerre 1-2 Marseille: the most likely score if Marseille win, which is the likeliest result (43%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.9%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives AJ Auxerre 31%, the draw 25% and Marseille 43%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on AJ Auxerre expecting 1.40 goals and Marseille 1.68.
Over or under 2.5 goals in AJ Auxerre vs Marseille?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the AJ Auxerre v Marseille line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for AJ Auxerre v Marseille?
Both Teams to Score (61%), Over 21.5 Total Shots (80%), Cameron Archer 1+ Shot (87%), Amine Gouiri 1+ Shot (86%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 46% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.17). 18+, please gamble responsibly.