FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Monday, 19 October 2026

Al Shabab 2–2 Al FaisalyMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Shabab or draw at 75%. Bawler had Al Shabab at 51%, the draw at 24% and Al Faisaly at 25%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Shabab win
51%
Draw
24%
Result
Al Faisaly win
25%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.5
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Al Shabab to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, backed by Al Shabab's 0.50 xG advantage and a combined 3.13 expected goals suggesting a competitive, open encounter."

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