FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 15 October 2026

Al Faisaly 3–2 Al KholoodMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026

Al Faisaly
3–2
Al Faisaly win
Al Kholood

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Al Kholood or draw at 65%. Bawler had Al Faisaly at 35%, the draw at 27% and Al Kholood at 38%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Faisaly win
35%
Result
Draw
27%
Al Kholood win
38%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.8
From the match itself

The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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