FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 16 October 2026

Al Qadsiah 2–1 AbhaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 16 October 2026

Al Qadsiah
2–1
Al Qadsiah win
Abha

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Qadsiah to win at 77%. Bawler had Al Qadsiah at 77%, the draw at 15% and Abha at 8%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Qadsiah win
77%
Result
Draw
15%
Abha win
8%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.8
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Qadsiah to win
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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