St Johnstone beat Aberdeen 1–0. Aberdeen had 22 shots (5 on target) to St Johnstone's 5 (1), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.1, so Aberdeen created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
St Johnstone beat Aberdeen 1–0. Aberdeen had 22 shots (5 on target) to St Johnstone's 5 (1), with 65% of the ball against 35%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.1, so Aberdeen created the better chances and still lost the game.
Aberdeen 0–1 St Johnstone, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Aberdeen 42%, the draw 28% and St Johnstone 30%.
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.1, Shots 22–5, Shots on target 5–1, Shots inside box 15–5, Big chances 1–2, Corners 13–2, Saves 0–5, Fouls 7–10, Offsides 0–0.
No. It finished 0–1, so Aberdeen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.