FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 17 October 2026
St Johnstone 1–1 Dundee UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St Johnstone or draw at 68%. Bawler had St Johnstone at 42%, the draw at 26% and Dundee United at 32%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St Johnstone win
42%
Draw
26%
Result
Dundee United win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.