FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Aberdeen 3–1 St MirrenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aberdeen or draw at 70%. Bawler had Aberdeen at 42%, the draw at 28% and St Mirren at 30%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aberdeen win
42%
Result
Draw
28%
St Mirren win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.