FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 05 November 2026
Benfica 3–1 Lech PoznanMatch recap · Thursday, 05 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Benfica or Draw✓
Benfica Over 18.5 Shots✓
Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ Shot on TargetDidn't start, so this leg was droppedDropped
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats on the legs left in play. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
73%
Result
Draw
16%
Lech Poznan win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 1.1
Total 3.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.9.