FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Ferencvaros 2–1 Viktoria PlzenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ferencvaros or draw at 78%. Bawler had Ferencvaros at 51%, the draw at 26% and Viktoria Plzen at 22%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ferencvaros win
51%
Result
Draw
26%
Viktoria Plzen win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Ferencvaros or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.