FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 02 November 2026
Benfica 1–0 AlvercaMatch recap · Monday, 02 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Benfica or Draw✓
Chiquinho 1+ Foul Committed✓
Vangelis Pavlidis 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
73%
Result
Draw
17%
Alverca win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.8
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.