Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelUnion St.-Gilloise on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Union St.-Gilloise v Lech Poznan prediction
Our model gives Union St.-Gilloise a 63% chance of winning this Europa League game. A Lech Poznan win is 18% and a draw 19%. Our predicted score is Union St.-Gilloise 2–1 Lech Poznan (9%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. Union St.-Gilloise are expected to score 2.5 goals and Lech Poznan 1.3, 3.7 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (65%) and three or more goals is 72%.
On form, Union St.-Gilloise have five wins, one draw and no defeats from their last six games, and Lech Poznan have two wins, two draws and two defeats. Of the players, Terry Yegbe (Lech Poznan) tops both our lists, with 0.3 shots and 0.1 on target expected if they start. Kevin Mac Allister of Union St.-Gilloise is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2026/27.
We expect Union St.-Gilloise to have 20.9 shots (5.4 on target) and Lech Poznan 10.4 (3.8 on target), and corners at 6.8 to 3.4. That points to Union St.-Gilloise doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick combines Union St.-Gilloise or Draw, Union St.-Gilloise Over 16.5 Shots, Union St.-Gilloise Over 2.5 Shots on Target and Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Union St.-Gilloise · last 6
Lech Poznan · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Union St.-Gilloise to win is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan?
Bawler's model rates this match: Union St.-Gilloise are favoured (63% win probability vs 18% for Lech Poznan, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan?
Bawler's predicted score is Union St.-Gilloise 2-1 Lech Poznan: the most likely score if Union St.-Gilloise win, which is the likeliest result (63%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.2%. Expected total goals: 3.7.
How does Bawler predict Union St.-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Union St.-Gilloise 63%, the draw 19% and Lech Poznan 18%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on Union St.-Gilloise expecting 2.46 goals and Lech Poznan 1.25.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Union St.-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan?
Bawler's model expects 3.7 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 72%.
When are the Union St.-Gilloise v Lech Poznan line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Union St.-Gilloise v Lech Poznan?
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw (82%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 16.5 Shots (77%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 2.5 Shots on Target (88%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Corners (85%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.91). 18+, please gamble responsibly.