Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelUnion St.-Gilloise on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
KV Kortrijk v Union St.-Gilloise prediction
Union St.-Gilloise go into this Belgian Pro League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 72% to win, against 10% for KV Kortrijk and 18% for a draw. Our predicted score is KV Kortrijk 0–2 Union St.-Gilloise, at 12%. We expect 3.1 goals in total: 0.7 for KV Kortrijk and 2.3 for Union St.-Gilloise. Both teams scoring is only 47% and three or more goals is 59%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, KV Kortrijk have won none, Union St.-Gilloise five. When they last met, it finished Kortrijk 1–2 Union St.Gilloise, in Feb 2025. For cards, Kevin Mac Allister (Union St.-Gilloise) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On shots, our forecast is 12.2 for KV Kortrijk and 18.8 for Union St.-Gilloise, with 3.7 and 6.1 on target, and corners at 4.3 to 5.6. So we expect Union St.-Gilloise to do more of the shooting. On form, KV Kortrijk have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and Union St.-Gilloise have four wins, two draws and no defeats. Bawler's pick combines Union St.-Gilloise or Draw, Union St.-Gilloise Over 14.5 Shots, Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Shots on Target and Union St.-Gilloise Over 2.5 Corners. We make the chance of all four coming in 55%, a fair price of 5/6 (1.83).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
KV Kortrijk · last 6
Union St.-Gilloise · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Union St.-Gilloise to win is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Bawler's model rates this match: Union St.-Gilloise are favoured (72% win probability vs 10% for KV Kortrijk, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Bawler's predicted score is KV Kortrijk 0-2 Union St.-Gilloise: the most likely score if Union St.-Gilloise win, which is the likeliest result (72%). Our model puts that exact score at 12.5%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives KV Kortrijk 10%, the draw 18% and Union St.-Gilloise 72%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 47% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on KV Kortrijk expecting 0.74 goals and Union St.-Gilloise 2.32.
Over or under 2.5 goals in KV Kortrijk vs Union St.-Gilloise?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the KV Kortrijk v Union St.-Gilloise line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for KV Kortrijk v Union St.-Gilloise?
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw (90%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 14.5 Shots (78%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Shots on Target (82%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 2.5 Corners (86%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.83). 18+, please gamble responsibly.