Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelUnion St.-Gilloise on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
Union St.-Gilloise v KAA Gent prediction
Our model gives Union St.-Gilloise a 61% chance of winning this Belgian Pro League game. A KAA Gent win is 16% and a draw 23%. Our predicted score is Union St.-Gilloise 1–0 KAA Gent, at 11%. Our expected goals are 1.9 for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.9 for KAA Gent, 2.8 in all. Both teams scoring is 50% and three or more goals is 53%.
On shots, our forecast is 19.6 for Union St.-Gilloise and 9.8 for KAA Gent, with 6.7 and 2.8 on target, and corners at 6.7 to 3.2. So we expect Union St.-Gilloise to do more of the shooting. In their last six games Union St.-Gilloise have five wins, one draw and no defeats, while KAA Gent have two wins, one draw and three defeats. Both won their most recent match.
For cards, Kevin Mac Allister (Union St.-Gilloise) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. Bawler's pick for this game is Union St.-Gilloise or Draw, Union St.-Gilloise Over 14.5 Shots, Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Shots on Target and Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 55% chance, which makes the fair price 4/5 (1.82).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Union St.-Gilloise · last 6
KAA Gent · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Union St.-Gilloise to win is 61% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent?
Bawler's model rates this match: Union St.-Gilloise are favoured (61% win probability vs 16% for KAA Gent, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent?
Bawler's predicted score is Union St.-Gilloise 1-0 KAA Gent: the most likely score if Union St.-Gilloise win, which is the likeliest result (61%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.4%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Union St.-Gilloise 61%, the draw 23% and KAA Gent 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Union St.-Gilloise expecting 1.92 goals and KAA Gent 0.89.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Union St.-Gilloise vs KAA Gent?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Union St.-Gilloise v KAA Gent line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Union St.-Gilloise v KAA Gent?
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw (84%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 14.5 Shots (82%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Shots on Target (87%), Union St.-Gilloise Over 3.5 Corners (84%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.82). 18+, please gamble responsibly.