Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelKAA Gent on top: we expect them to avoid defeat and do most of the shooting.
KAA Gent v Red Star Belgrade prediction
KAA Gent are favourites on our numbers: 50% to win, against 25% for Red Star Belgrade and 26% for a draw. Our predicted score is KAA Gent 1–0 Red Star Belgrade: the most likely score if KAA Gent win, at 10%. KAA Gent are expected to score 1.7 goals and Red Star Belgrade 1.1, 2.8 between them. Both teams scoring is 55% and three or more goals is 53%.
On shots, our forecast is 11.4 for KAA Gent and 13.3 for Red Star Belgrade, with 3.2 and 5.2 on target, and corners at 4.4 to 4.0. In their last six games KAA Gent have two wins, one draw and three defeats, while Red Star Belgrade have five wins, one draw and no defeats. Both won their most recent match.
Bamba Dieng is the player we expect to shoot most: 2.5 shots and 1.3 on target for Red Star Belgrade, if they start. For cards, Siebe van der Heyden (KAA Gent) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. Bawler's pick for this game is KAA Gent or Draw, KAA Gent Over 7.5 Shots, KAA Gent Over 1.5 Shots on Target and KAA Gent Over 1.5 Corners. Our model gives all four landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.10).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
KAA Gent · last 6
Red Star Belgrade · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
KAA Gent or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Jupiler Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win KAA Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?
Bawler's model rates this match: KAA Gent are favoured (50% win probability vs 25% for Red Star Belgrade, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for KAA Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?
Bawler's predicted score is KAA Gent 1-0 Red Star Belgrade: the most likely score if KAA Gent win, which is the likeliest result (50%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict KAA Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives KAA Gent 50%, the draw 26% and Red Star Belgrade 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in KAA Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on KAA Gent expecting 1.69 goals and Red Star Belgrade 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in KAA Gent vs Red Star Belgrade?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the KAA Gent v Red Star Belgrade line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for KAA Gent v Red Star Belgrade?
KAA Gent or Draw (75%), KAA Gent Over 7.5 Shots (82%), KAA Gent Over 1.5 Shots on Target (79%), KAA Gent Over 1.5 Corners (88%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.10). 18+, please gamble responsibly.