Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFiorentina on top, and Franco Mastantuono getting plenty of shots away.
Udinese v Fiorentina prediction
Our model gives Udinese 30%, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 45%, so Fiorentina start as favourites. Our predicted score is Udinese 1–2 Fiorentina, the likeliest Fiorentina win score (9%). We expect 3.0 goals in total: 1.3 for Udinese and 1.7 for Fiorentina. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 58%.
In their last six games Udinese have no wins, one draw and five defeats, while Fiorentina have one win, two draws and three defeats. Udinese lost their most recent match and Fiorentina drew theirs. We expect Udinese to have 14.7 shots (4.6 on target) and Fiorentina 12.9 (4.3 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 4.3.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Udinese and Fiorentina have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Udinese 3–0 Fiorentina, in Mar 2026. Nicolò Zaniolo (Udinese) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.9 shots if they start. Franco Mastantuono (Fiorentina) leads for shots on target, at 0.9. Viery of Fiorentina is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Fiorentina or Draw, Fiorentina Over 9.5 Shots and Franco Mastantuono 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 41% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/8, or 2.42.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Udinese · last 6
Fiorentina · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Fiorentina or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's model rates this match: Fiorentina are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Udinese, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's predicted score is Udinese 1-2 Fiorentina: the most likely score if Fiorentina win, which is the likeliest result (45%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Udinese 30%, the draw 25% and Fiorentina 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Udinese expecting 1.32 goals and Fiorentina 1.68.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Udinese vs Fiorentina?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 58%.
When are the Udinese v Fiorentina line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Udinese v Fiorentina?
Fiorentina or Draw (70%), Fiorentina Over 9.5 Shots (76%), Franco Mastantuono 2+ Shots (70%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 41% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.42). 18+, please gamble responsibly.