What we expect
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?
Bawler's model rates this match: Türkiye are favoured (52% win probability vs 25% for Italy, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Italy?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Türkiye 1-1 Italy (10.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.21.
How does Bawler predict Türkiye vs Italy?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Türkiye 52%, the draw 24% and Italy 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.92 and away expected goals 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Türkiye vs Italy?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.21. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).