How it finished
Italy beat Türkiye 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Türkiye at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Italy 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Türkiye had 15 shots (3 on target) to Italy's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we said the chances were
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them. Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
First half — what we expected
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Türkiye vs Italy?
Italy beat Türkiye 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Türkiye at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Italy 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Türkiye had 15 shots (3 on target) to Italy's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
What was the final score in Türkiye vs Italy?
Türkiye 1–4 Italy, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Türkiye 47%, the draw 25% and Italy 27%.
What were the stats in Türkiye vs Italy?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Shots 15–14, Shots on target 3–8, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–2, Fouls 12–21, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
Yes — both Türkiye and Italy scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Türkiye vs Italy right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Türkiye or draw 73%, it finished Italy won (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.