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Switzerland vs Scotland prediction — UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK

UEFA Nations League · Mon 16 Nov · 19:45 UK
71Switzerland win19Draw10Scotland win
The call
71%
Switzerland to win
Calls like this land 67% of the time
152 of 227 settledFull record →
14d 18hUntil lineups lock
Likeliest score
2–0
13% — the single most likely result
Expected goals
2.2v0.7
2.9 in total
Both teams score
46%
Leans no
3+ goals
56%
Leans likely

What we expect from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

SwitzerlandSwitzerlandScotlandScotland
2.2Goals0.7
usually 2.0usually 0.5
17.9Shots7.1
usually 15.7usually 12.7
6.5On target2.5
usually 6.7usually 4.3
6.2Corners2.9
usually 4.7usually 4.2
SwitzerlandSwitzerlandScotlandScotland
1.0Goals0.3
8.2Shots3.2
usually 7.0usually 4.8
2.9On target1.1
usually 3.2usually 0.8
2.9Corners1.4
usually 2.2usually 2.3
SwitzerlandSwitzerlandScotlandScotland
1.2Goals0.4
9.8Shots3.9
3.6On target1.3
3.3Corners1.6

More chances

Switzerland to score89%
2 or more goals79%
Goal before half-time73%
3 goals or fewer66%

Switzerland · last 6

Wv North Macedonia3–020 shots
Wv Slovenia2–113 shots
Wat Scotland3–023 shots
Wv North Macedonia3–023 shots
Lv Argentina1–39 shots
Dv Colombia0–06 shots

Scotland · last 6

Lv Slovenia1–212 shots
Wv North Macedonia2–025 shots
Lv Switzerland0–32 shots
Dat Slovenia0–017 shots
Lv Brazil0–314 shots
Lv Morocco0–16 shots

Head to head

Sept 2026Scotland 0–3 Switzerland
Jun 2024Scotland 1–1 Switzerland

First half — what we expect

Switzerland
62%
to score before half-time
Scotland
28%
to score before half-time

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.

SwitzerlandSwitzerlandScotlandScotland
65%7+ shots<10%
43%9+ shots<10%
75%2+ shots on target30%
33%4+ shots on target<10%
74%2+ corners38%
34%4+ corners<10%

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

What would change the call

Switzerland to win is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:

Switzerland lead 1–0 at half-time87%
Scotland lead 1–0 at half-time23%
Goalless at half-time54%

Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.

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Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →Switzerland form →Scotland form →

Common questions

Who will win Switzerland vs Scotland?

Bawler's model rates this match: Switzerland are favoured (71% win probability vs 10% for Scotland, 19% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Switzerland vs Scotland?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Switzerland 2-0 Scotland (12.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.

How does Bawler predict Switzerland vs Scotland?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Switzerland 71%, the draw 19% and Scotland 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Switzerland vs Scotland?

Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Switzerland expecting 2.21 goals and Scotland 0.73.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Switzerland vs Scotland?

Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.