Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Swansea City v Cardiff City prediction
Our model makes Swansea City favourites for this Championship game, giving them a 45% chance of winning. Cardiff City are 31% and the draw is 24%. Our predicted score is Swansea City 2–1 Cardiff City, the likeliest Swansea City win score (9%). Swansea City are expected to score 1.9 goals and Cardiff City 1.5, 3.4 between them. Both teams scoring is 66% and three or more goals is 66%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Swansea City and Cardiff City have two wins each, with one draw. When they last met, it finished Cardiff City 3–0 Swansea City, in Jan 2025. On shots, our forecast is 16.4 for Swansea City and 12.0 for Cardiff City, with 5.3 and 4.0 on target, and corners at 5.8 to 4.6. So we expect Swansea City to do more of the shooting.
In their last six games Swansea City have two wins, no draws and four defeats, while Cardiff City have three wins, two draws and one defeat. Swansea City lost their most recent match and Cardiff City won theirs. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 23.5 Total Shots, Over 7.5 Total Corners and Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 55% chance, which makes the fair price 4/5 (1.80).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Swansea City · last 6
Cardiff City · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Swansea City or draw is 69% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Championship table →Common questions
Who will win Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Swansea City are favoured (45% win probability vs 31% for Cardiff City, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Bawler's predicted score is Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City: the most likely score if Swansea City win, which is the likeliest result (45%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Swansea City 45%, the draw 24% and Cardiff City 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 66% chance. That is based on Swansea City expecting 1.86 goals and Cardiff City 1.54.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Swansea City vs Cardiff City?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.
When are the Swansea City v Cardiff City line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Swansea City v Cardiff City?
Over 23.5 Total Shots (79%), Over 7.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target (80%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 55% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.