Match prediction·SCOTLAND: Premiership·Saturday 08 Aug, 14:00 UTC

St Mirren vs St Johnstone

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.9% home34.1% draw25.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
St MirrenstepSt Johnstone
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

St. Mirren average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Not both teams to score
55%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

St Mirren fixtures & form →St Johnstone fixtures & form →

St Mirren vs St Johnstone — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between St Mirren and St Johnstone — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: St Mirren 41% · draw 34% · St Johnstone 25%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

St Mirren predictions & form →St Johnstone predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
St Mirren 1–0 St Johnstone
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.