FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Sunday, 30 August 2026
St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St Mirren at 30%, draw at 29%, Motherwell at 41%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Motherwell to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mirren win
30%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Motherwell win
41%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.10 – 1.34
Total 2.45
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won