FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Dundee 1–1 St JohnstoneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Dundee at 43%, draw at 27%, St Johnstone at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Dundee to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee win
43%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Johnstone win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.26
Total 2.80
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won