FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Saturday, 22 August 2026
St Johnstone 0–0 CelticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St Johnstone at 14%, draw at 20%, Celtic at 66%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Celtic to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Johnstone win
14%
Draw
20%
Actual ✓
Celtic win
66%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.94 – 2.21
Total 3.16
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 86%
No result
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
No result