What we expect
In plain English
Spain should win this one. They have won six of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Croatia, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Spain to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Spain vs Croatia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Spain are favoured (80% win probability vs 5% for Croatia, 15% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Croatia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Spain 2-0 Croatia (15.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.94.
How does Bawler predict Spain vs Croatia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Spain 80%, the draw 15% and Croatia 5%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Croatia?
BTTS: No (64% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.44 and away expected goals 0.50.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Spain vs Croatia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.94. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).