FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

England 2–3 SpainMatch recap · Saturday, 26 September 2026

England
2–3
Spain win
Spain

Pre-match probability vs result

England win
26%
Draw
27%
Spain win
46%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.0
From the match itself

The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

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