FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Spain 3–1 CzechiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Spain
3–1
Spain win
Czechia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Spain to win at 91%. Bawler had Spain at 91%, the draw at 8% and Czechia at 2%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Spain win
91%
Result
Draw
8%
Czechia win
2%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.1 – 0.3
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Spain to win
Pre-match: 91%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Spain's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 90%, built on a 2.75 expected-goals advantage and Yamal and Lewandowski accounting for over a third of their attacking threat."

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