FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Croatia 0–7 EnglandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Croatia
0–7
England win
England

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was England to win at 62%. Bawler had Croatia at 18%, the draw at 21% and England at 62%. The match finished 0–7.

Pre-match probability vs result

Croatia win
18%
Draw
21%
England win
62%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 2.2
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 7
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 6.1
From the match itself

The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
England to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"England's away win is the model's high-confidence call at 62% probability, underpinned by a decisive 1.12 xG advantage and Kane's creative influence in an attack that generates nearly double Croatia's shot quality."

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